WYSIATI bias: What You See Is All There Is
We tend to base judgments and decisions solely on the information available.
When was the last time you drew a wrong conclusion based on incomplete information?
Have you ever discovered that your first impression of someone was completely wrong?
How often do you have to revise quick decisions based on incomplete information?
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The WYSIATI (What You See Is All There Is) bias is our tendency to base judgements and decisions solely on the information available, without considering what may be missing.
Our automatic, intuitive mind does not put much effort into looking for information it doesn’t have. It relies on the information it has as if it is the only information available. Therefore, it can think quickly. When making judgements or decisions, it takes into account only the information available at the time, regardless of its quality or quantity, and tries to construct the most coherent story from it. To be compelling, this constructed story does not have to be accurate, complete, or reliable; it just needs to be coherent. Coherent stories based on very different quantities and qualities of evidence can be equally convincing, since subjective confidence in a story is based only on its coherence. The amount of evidence and its quality do not matter much.
Our view of the world is limited by the information available to us at any given time. When information is scarce, as is often the case, our intuitive mind tends to jump to conclusions. The less information there is, the easier it is to fit it into a coherent story. Such potentially flawed but coherent stories can be very convincing. We often fail to consider the possibility that crucial evidence supporting our judgements and opinions may be missing, causing us to place too much trust in them. Consequently, our understanding of the world is often based on a small, incomplete, and unrepresentative set of information.
For example, we typically form impressions of people within a second of meeting them. We quickly decide whether they are friendly, honest, or dominant and whether we will like them. It is clear that this judgement is based on inadequate information, focusing solely on their facial features or movements.
Related cognitive biases and heuristics
The WYSIATI bias is closely linked to a large number of cognitive biases and heuristics, such as:
👉 Overconfidence effect. Our confidence in a story depends on its coherence rather than the quantity or quality of supporting evidence. We place too much emphasis on readily available information and undervalue or ignore what we don’t know, causing us to be overconfident in our opinions.
In a study, participants were presented with legal scenarios involving two parties. First, all participants read the same background material. Then one group saw a presentation from the lawyers of party A, another group saw a presentation from the lawyers of party B, and the remaining participants saw both sides. The lawyers added no useful information to the background material. Despite knowing that the lawyers’ evidence was one-sided, the participants who saw only one-sided evidence were significantly influenced by it. They also felt more confident in their judgements than those who saw both sides, because one-sided stories seem more coherent than two-sided ones.
👉 The framing effect. Different formulations (frames) of the same information can evoke different emotions. For example, a 90% survival rate conjures up hopeful thoughts about surviving, while a 10% mortality rate conjures up scary thoughts about dying. Usually we only see one frame at a time, and what we see is all there is.
👉 Negativity bias: we tend to focus on negative experiences and information, and ignore relevant positive ones. Optimism bias: we tend to make decisions based on unrealistically optimistic expectations, ignoring potential risks and challenges. Focusing illusion: we tend to overestimate the importance of something just because we focus our attention on it and ignore other factors. Confirmation bias: we tend to favour information that confirms our pre-existing beliefs, and to ignore or discount information that contradicts these beliefs. Availability heuristic: we tend to base our judgements and decisions on information that comes to mind easily, such as recent or vivid information, ignoring relevant information that is not immediately accessible. Survivorship bias: we tend to focus on successful outcomes (survivors, winners) while overlooking unsuccessful outcomes (failures, losers). In all these cases, the bias or heuristic is reinforced by WYSIATI because we base our judgements and decisions solely on the information available, without considering what might be missing.
Some examples of harmful consequences
Most of the time, the WYSIATI mechanism works efficiently and effectively, constructing stories that closely match reality and support sensible actions. However, it can lead to harmful consequences if critical factors are overlooked.
👉 Financial bubbles occur when investors observe a sustained and substantial increase in the value of certain assets, such as technology stocks. This trend stimulates heavy investment, which further increases demand and prices, and ultimately creates a bubble. However, when the factors fuelling the asset's inflated value, such as speculative enthusiasm, come to light, the bubble bursts. This sudden price drop results in significant financial losses for investors who relied heavily on the asset's positive data, ignored the underlying risks and mindlessly followed market trends without considering potential downsides.
👉 Suppose a patient exhibits symptoms similar to those of a common illness, such as the flu. Under the influence of the typical manifestation of this disease and recent flu outbreaks, a doctor diagnoses the flu and carries out treatment accordingly. However, despite following the prescribed treatment regimen, the patient's condition gradually worsens. Upon closer examination, it appears that the patient is actually suffering from a less common but more serious condition that initially has the same symptoms as the flu. The misdiagnosis and the resulting delay in administering appropriate treatment not only increase the patient's suffering, but also increase the likelihood of complications and lasting health consequences.
👉 Imagine a scenario in which law enforcement during a criminal investigation fixates on a particular suspect early on because of circumstantial evidence that initially seems compelling. As the investigation continues, investigators are increasingly focusing on building a case against this suspect. They ignore alternative leads and potentially exculpatory evidence, overlook inconsistencies in witness statements, and don't thoroughly investigate other potential suspects. In some cases, investigators even manipulate evidence to fit their predetermined narrative, resulting in a biased prosecution. Ultimately, this narrow focus can lead to the wrongful conviction of an innocent person, while the true perpetrator evades justice. Unfortunately, there are countless real-life examples of this phenomenon, highlighting the dire consequences of tunnel vision in criminal investigations.
How to reduce the adverse impact of WYSIATI bias
Protecting ourselves from the negative consequences of biases can be tiresome and impractical, but it can be worth it when the stakes are high. The best approach is to recognise when the consequences of a decision are significant and to deliberately slow down our fast, intuitive thinking in such situations. Letting things cool down and avoiding quick conclusions can be really helpful. Engaging our deliberative, analytical mind allows us to form a more thoughtful opinion and often reveals the need for more information of sufficient quality to make a better decision.
⚒️ Become aware of WYSIATI bias
Becoming aware of the potential adverse influence of WYSIATI bias is the first step in reducing its impact.
When making a decision with significant emotional or financial stakes, take a step back to assess whether you have adequately considered what critical information you may be missing. Ask yourself questions such as:
🤔 Am I considering all relevant information? This question prompts you to actively seek out additional information that may be critical to the decision at hand.
🤔 What information am I overlooking or discounting? By consciously identifying any overlooked or discounted information, you can make a more informed decision.
🤔 Have I sought out alternative perspectives or opinions? This question encourages you to broaden your understanding of the situation and consider different interpretations of the available information.
🤔 Am I jumping to conclusions? Critically evaluate whether you have thoroughly assessed all available information, considered alternative perspectives, and avoided making assumptions based solely on initial impressions or limited data.
If you become aware that the influence of WYSIATI bias could have negative consequences for yourself or others, take steps to mitigate its effects.
⚒️ Actively seek out the required critical information
To effectively diminish the adverse effects of WYSIATI bias, follow the below high-level steps:
👉 Critically assess the validity and reliability of the information gathered thus far. Look for inconsistencies or gaps that need further exploration.
👉 Evaluate the validity of your implicit or explicit assumptions by determining whether they are based on solid evidence or just preconceived ideas.
👉 Actively seek out the critical information required for the decision at hand, especially information that may be less easily accessible or initially overlooked. Using tools such as the possibility grid can help you understand what important information you may be missing.
👉 Deliberately explore alternative perspectives, explanations or solutions, even if they contradict your initial inclinations.
👉 Consult with others who have different viewpoints or expertise to broaden your understanding and uncover potential blind spots.
By following these steps, you can significantly reduce the influence of WYSIATI bias and enhance the quality of your decisions by taking into account all critical factors and perspectives.
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We tend to base judgements and decisions solely on the information available, without considering what might be missing. While this approach generally supports sensible actions, it can lead to harmful consequences when critical factors are overlooked.
References
Thinking, Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman
My blogposts about biases and heuristics are available here:
https://www.a3lifedesign.com/blog-english/category/Biases
