Availability heuristic: Why violent crimes are less common than you think
We tend to assume that things that come to mind easily are more common than they really are.
Do you sometimes argue with your partner about who contributes most to the household chores?
Do you think flying is more dangerous than driving?
Are you afraid to swim in the sea for fear of shark attacks?
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The availability heuristic is our tendency to assume that things that come to mind easily are more common than they really are.
Unlikely events that capture our attention tend to be more memorable than likely events that we often overlook. The memorability of an event does not necessarily correspond to its likelihood. The availability heuristic leads us to overestimate the probability of extraordinary, improbable events while simultaneously underestimating the likelihood of ordinary, probable events. These cognitive biases distort our worldview and can influence our emotions, decisions, and behaviours.
The availability heuristic simplifies complex questions about the frequency of events by substituting them with easier questions about how easily instances come to mind. This substitution of questions inevitably leads to systematic errors.
Let’s look at some examples.
👉 Violent crimes like murder and rape get a lot of media attention and thus come to mind easily. In most parts of the world, the risk of becoming a victim of violent crime is statistically low. But these statistics get a lot less media attention because they are not gory and shocking. This discrepancy causes us to see the world as more violent than it actually is. Some of us may worry about violent crimes that almost never happen.
👉 Events that we personally experience, such as a burglary in our house or an accident with our car, cause us to temporarily overestimate the likelihood of these events, until the memories of these events have faded.
👉 Both partners in a relationship may see their contribution to the household chores as larger than it actually is. Their self-estimated contributions add up to more than 100%. This is caused by the availability heuristic: both partners remember their own contributions more clearly than those of the other. Awareness of this mechanism can reduce the number of disagreements on this subject (unless one of the partners really contributes too little).
👉 Most people consider flying more dangerous than driving because plane crashes receive far more attention than car crashes. In reality, flying is statistically much safer than driving. People who travel by car because they find it safer actually choose the riskier option.
👉 Terrorist attacks in Western Europe are rare. Nevertheless, after every terrorist attack in this region, many holidays to the country in question are cancelled for fear of attacks. Extensive media coverage makes these attacks seem more common than they actually are.
👉 Globally, there are generally fewer than hundred shark attacks per year, but these unusual attacks receive a lot of media attention. This makes some people afraid to swim in the sea because they greatly overestimate the likelihood of these attacks.
👉 Estimates of causes of death are biased by the amount of media attention they receive. For example, accidental death is judged by most people to be as likely as death from disease. But dying from a disease is much more likely than dying from an accident.
👉 Unusual one-time events, such as a serious error or remarkable success, are given much weight in annual performance appraisals, as they come easily to the mind of the manager, and so are seen as more likely than they really are.
👉 Underestimating the risk of likely events that we barely notice makes us less inclined to take appropriate action. For example, we may not be saving enough money for retirement because this boring subject doesn’t have our attention. Or we don’t protect our skin and eyes from the sun because we associate sunshine with feeling good and not with its harmful consequences. High blood pressure can have significant long-term consequences. However, since these consequences aren't immediately noticeable, many people do not regularly monitor their blood pressure.
Our perception of the world is significantly influenced by what is discussed in the media. There is a well-known saying that good news is no news. Humans have an intrinsic negativity bias: we give more attention to bad news than to good news, and we emotionally react much stronger to negative news than to positive news. The media want to grab our attention and respond to the demand for negative news by depicting frightening events, such as natural disasters, violent crimes, plane crashes and terrorist attacks. Frightening thoughts and images easily come to mind, making these dramatic events seem more likely than they really are. This distorted view of reality leads us to believe that the world is more dangerous than it really is, causing much unnecessary anxiety and fear.
How can we reduce the impact of the availability heuristic?
Being vigilant against biases is tiresome and often impractical, but can be worth the effort when the stakes are high.
You want to find an answer to the question:
🤔 How likely is this really?
🛠️ Become aware of the availability heuristic
When facing important decisions, pause to consider if the availability heuristic might be distorting your perception of reality. Request on questions like:
🤔 Did this come to mind easily because it's the most recent information? Reflect on whether the ease of recalling information biases decision-making.
🤔 Is my perspective shaped by recent news coverage? Evaluate whether media coverage is disproportionately affecting judgement.
🤔 Are my concerns influenced by alarming media reports? Scrutinise whether fear-inducing media narratives are distorting perceptions.
🤔 Am I assessing probabilities based on recent personal experiences? Consider if personal experiences possibly skew your risk assessment.
🤔 Am I overlooking less prominent but crucial information? Examine whether less visible but significant details are being disregarded in decision-making.
If you suspect the availability heuristic is distorting your worldview in this instance, take a moment to evaluate the actual probability of the event.
🛠️ Consult statistical data
Numerous reliable statistics are available online. To gain perspective, seek out pertinent statistics related to your circumstances. Once located, assess the actual likelihood of the event you're concerned about. For instance, you might research terrorism statistics for the country you plan to visit, shark attack frequencies for your intended beach destination, or homicide rates in your hometown. This data provides the probability (often termed the base rate) of such occurrences.
Suppose recent statistics indicate a 1 in 100,000 chance of being murdered in your hometown. Unless specific circumstances increase your risk, this statistic suggests minimal concern. Conversely, a 1 in 1,000 chance would likely prompt consideration of relocating to a safer area.
If statistics seem uninteresting to you, it may explain why they receive less attention than they deserve.
🛠️ Take into account less memorable information
When assessing the likelihood of something, consider not only things that come to mind easily, but also less memorable information.
For instance, in the context of annual performance appraisals, managers should review the entire year's events to accurately gauge the likelihood of isolated incidents. This can be achieved by monitoring monthly performance metrics. Similarly, partners who have differing perceptions of household chore contributions can maintain a log over several weeks to document each partner's tasks. This method ensures that less memorable details are considered.
References
Thinking, Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman
5 Common Mental Errors That Sway You From Making Good Decisions, by James Clear, https://jamesclear.com/common-mental-errors
The Availability Bias: How to Overcome a Common Cognitive Distortion, Farnam Street, https://fs.blog/availability-bias-cognitive-distortion/
Why the News Is Loaded With Violence, Psychology Today, by Nigel Barber Ph.D., https://www.psychologytoday.com/intl/blog/the-human-beast/201601/why-the-news-is-loaded-violence
