Testing your stories: The importance of evidence
Make sure your stories are based on facts.
Have you ever wondered whether your perception of the world reflects how it really is?
✳️✳️✳️
We constantly try to make sense of ourselves, others and the world by automatically and unconsciously constructing stories. These stories provide a narrative framework that shapes how we interpret and interact with our surroundings. They manifest as mental constructs such as beliefs, theories, mindsets, or assumptions. Most of the time our stories closely match reality and support sensible actions. However, our worldview often deviates from reality because many of our stories obscure the truth while reassuring us that we understand ourselves and the world.
We tend to base our stories solely on the information available, without considering what may be missing, due to the WYSIATI (What You See Is All There Is) bias. When information is scarce, as is often the case, we frequently jump to conclusions that lack sufficient evidence. For example, we typically form impressions of people within a second of meeting them.
We often construct explanatory cause-and-effect stories that are not based in reality due to the narrative fallacy. For example, in many ancient cultures, it was believed that lightning bolts were caused by sky gods. Similarly, many people believe in the concept of lucky numbers and use them in various aspects of their lives, such as when choosing lottery numbers or important dates.
For some of our stories we have no evidence at all. These stories often arise from social proof and tribalism, where the influence of group beliefs and behaviours outweighs factual accuracy. Social proof causes us to adopt the beliefs and behaviours of those around us, assuming them to be correct because they are widely accepted. Tribalism trumps truth because we prioritise the acceptance and cohesion of our group over objective reality.
The stories through which we view the world can have negatives consequences when they distort the truth, perpetuate false beliefs, oversimplify the complexity of reality, or lead to decisions based on incomplete or inaccurate information.
Definition of true
Statements are true when they accurately correspond to objective reality as can be verified through observation, or empirical evidence, independent of individual opinions, beliefs, or interpretations. For example: The statement "Water boils at 100°C at sea level" is true because it corresponds to observable and measurable physical phenomena under specific conditions. On the other hand, the statement "The Earth is flat" is empirically not true, because scientific evidence from many observations and measurements shows that the Earth is round.
Put stories to the test
To approach reality more closely, we need to be a little skeptical and put our stories to the test. Adopting the mindset of a scientist, engineer, detective or plumber encourages us to seek empirical evidence to support or refute our beliefs, ask probing questions, and remain open to revising our beliefs in light of new information. Here are some key questions and examples to illustrate this approach.
🤔 How do I know that the story is true?
🤔 What is the evidence that backs up this story?
To challenge the validity of a story, whether it is a belief, theory or an assumption, we must critically evaluate how we know it to be true. This involves distinguishing between well-supported narratives and those based on weak or insufficient evidence. The evaluation process includes identifying the sources of the story and assessing their reliability. By taking these steps, you can better assess the strength of the evidence supporting a story and make informed decisions. This critical approach helps you avoid accepting false or misleading information, ensuring that your beliefs and actions are based on reliable evidence.
👉 For example, suppose you believe the story that a certain dietary supplement boosts memory. How can you be sure this is true? Is your belief based on personal experience, or something you’ve read or heard?
To verify this story, start by looking for information from reliable sources. Check if health organisations, reputable websites, or experts in the field support the claim. Look for reviews or articles about the supplement that reference scientific research or clinical trials. Additionally, consult your doctor or another trusted healthcare professional. They can provide insight into the credibility of the claims and advice you on the safety and effectiveness of the supplement.
Pay attention to the quality of the sources and whether they have any potential conflicts of interest that might influence their claims. Generally, it’s best to trust information from well-known medical institutions, government health agencies, and respected health professionals over claims made by the supplement's manufacturers or anonymous online reviews. However, be aware that even national health services may not always be reliable.
👉 Or suppose you believe the story that a colleague doesn't like you. What evidence do you have for this?
To verify this belief, you need to gather concrete evidence. Start by reflecting on specific interactions: Has the colleague made negative comments towards you? Do they avoid you in social or professional settings? Look for patterns in their behaviour, such as consistently dismissive or hostile body language during meetings. Additionally, consider feedback or comments from other coworkers that might corroborate your perception. Are there instances where others have noticed the same behaviour?
Just like a detective gathering clues, you need to collect and analyse these pieces of evidence to determine the validity of your story. Consider alternative explanations as well; perhaps the colleague is stressed or preoccupied with personal issues. By systematically examining and questioning the evidence, you can assess whether your belief is based on solid grounds or if it might be a misinterpretation of isolated incidents. This methodical approach ensures that you are not jumping to conclusions without sufficient justification, much like a plumber diagnosing an issue by carefully inspecting each component of the plumbing system to identify the root cause.
🤔 How does this actually work at a detailed level?
Understanding the mechanisms underlying a story helps us grasp its plausibility and limitations. By breaking down the processes involved to a more granular level, we can better assess whether the story holds up under scrutiny.
Consider the belief (story) that some people can receive messages from the dead. To evaluate this belief, we need to explore what would be required for this process to work effectively and credibly.
First, consider the nature of the communication itself. The messages received may appear to contain information about the past, such as specific family events, personal relationships, or details about the deceased's life experiences. Where are these detailed memories stored? How and when did this information get there? What is the structure of this memory storage? How is this content accessed? What medium or method is used to transmit these messages?
Next, examine the individuals claiming to receive these messages. What evidence do they provide to support their abilities? Are there documented cases where their information has been verified by independent sources?
Additionally, consider scientific and alternative explanations. Could the messages be a result of psychological phenomena, such as subconscious cues or cold reading techniques? Are there studies or experiments that have tested these claims under controlled conditions?
By investigating these aspects, we can determine the likelihood of the claim being true. This critical approach helps us understand the strengths and weaknesses of the story and make more informed decisions about its validity.
If others hold beliefs that we think are not true, we may ask them to explain exactly how it works. If they can't, it may indicate that their understanding is based on assumptions or incomplete information. This lack of clarity could suggest that the belief is not well-founded and could benefit from further scrutiny and investigation. Encouraging a detailed explanation helps identify whether the belief is supported by credible evidence or if it relies more on anecdotal or unverified claims.
References
Putting Our Assumptions to the Test, Hidden Brain, by Shankar Vedantam, featuring Abhijit Banerjee
