Optimism bias: navigating the pitfalls of unrealistic optimism
Optimism bias can cause us to make decisions based on unrealistically optimistic expectations.
Are you a glass-half-full or glass-half-empty kind of person?
How does this affect your physical and emotional health, relationships and career?
Do you know how optimism bias can subconsciously influence your decisions?
Optimism bias (or optimistic bias) is our tendency to overestimate the likelihood that good things will happen to us and underestimate the likelihood that bad things will happen to us.
Optimism
Our brains are wired to be more optimistic about the future than pessimistic. A positive outlook on life increased our ancestors' chances of survival and reproduction. An optimistic attitude is largely hereditary: some people are naturally more optimistic than others. Optimism is prevalent in every age group. Older adults are just as likely to see the glass as half full as younger adults.
Optimism gives us hope that good things will happen in the future (optimistic expectations) and that we have the power to change our circumstances for the better. Research shows that people who are more optimistic are on average healthier, live longer, eat healthier, exercise more, are happier and feel less depressed and anxious. They are more resilient in adapting to failure, more persistent in the face of obstacles, and more likely to seek out challenges and take risks.
The evolutionary advantages of optimism
Optimism can aid survival and reproduction (the biological drive of all living beings) by influencing various aspects of human behaviour and psychology.
👉 Optimistic individuals persevere longer when faced by challenges, setbacks, and difficult circumstances. This resilience can help survive difficult situations and reach reproductive age.
👉 Optimism is associated with better physical and mental health. Optimistic people tend to engage in healthier behaviours, such as exercising and eating a balanced diet. They are also less susceptible to stress-related illnesses. Lower stress levels may be beneficial for survival and reproduction, as chronic stress can have detrimental effects on health, fertility, and reproductive success.
👉 Optimism can be socially attractive. Optimistic individuals often have more positive and supportive social relationships. This can help find suitable partners and maintain strong social connections.
👉 Optimism can drive individuals to take calculated risks and explore new opportunities. This exploratory behaviour can lead to the discovery of new resources, territories, or potential partners.
👉 Optimistic parents may be more likely to invest time, energy, and resources in raising their children because they have a positive outlook on the future and the potential benefits of their efforts.
Being optimistic is a good thing, even if it is mildly delusional, as long as we don’t lose contact with reality.
Optimism bias
The optimism bias distorts our perception of the future by distorting our beliefs about the likelihood of positive and negative events in unrealistic ways. This can lead us to make decisions based on unrealistically optimistic expectations, downplaying the likelihood of potential risks and challenges. As a result, we may not realise that we are taking unnecessary risks and we may fail to adequately prepare for potential negative events. This can lead to reckless behaviour, financial losses, and health problems. And when reality doesn't match our overly optimistic expectations, we may experience emotional distress and disappointment.
Examples of optimism bias
👉 Entrepreneurs tend to be more optimistic than the general population. The survival rates of small businesses are quite low and the majority of them fail within five years. Most entrepreneurs who start a small business don’t believe the statistics apply to them. They believe that their own venture is likely to succeed and many are convinced that their chance of failure is zero.
👉 Inventors also tend to be more optimistic than the general population. Their perseverance to overcome obstacles can sometimes be costly. Even when experts objectively judge that their invention has no commercial future, many of them continue their development efforts, thereby increasing their losses before they finally give up.
👉 People may engage in risky behaviour because they believe it is unlikely that something bad will happen to them. For example, a person may believe that they are less likely to be in a car accident than the statistical probability suggests, and therefore text while driving or not wear a seat belt.
👉 About half of all first marriages end in divorce (depending on the country you live in). Optimists are more likely to remarry after divorce (the triumph of hope over experience), although about two-thirds of all second marriages end in divorce. Naturally, people who get married think that their marriage will last until death do them part. This overconfidence can lead to insufficient attention to maintaining the relationship and developing the problem-solving skills needed during difficult times. Unrealistic optimism can also lead to high expectations that no one can meet.
👉 Many people underestimate the risk of health issues such as heart disease or cancer, causing them to skip regular check-ups and neglect healthy habits. For example, smokers often believe that they are less likely to develop smoking-related diseases than other smokers.
👉 The planning fallacy is one of the manifestations of the optimism bias: projects always take longer than you think, even if you take that into account.
https://www.a3lifedesign.com/blog-english/why-projects-always-take-longer-than-you-think
Negativity bias and optimism bias
We have an intrinsic negativity bias: we give more attention and weight to negative stimuli than to positive ones. Loss aversion is a specific manifestation of negativity bias.
https://www.a3lifedesign.com/blog-english/how-to-counteract-the-negativity-bias
Negativity bias and optimism bias oppose each other. Exaggerated optimism protects individuals and organisations from the paralysing effects of negativity bias. Negativity bias protects them from the follies of overconfident optimism. Of course, it is not guaranteed that the biases cancel each other out in every situation.
How to reduce the negative impact of optimism bias
Protecting yourself from the negative impact of biases can be tiresome, but it can be worth it when the stakes are high.
⚒️ Become aware of optimism bias
Becoming aware of the potential influence of optimism bias is the first step in mitigating its impact.
When you make an important decision, take a step back to examine whether the optimism bias might be impacting the decision. Ask yourself questions such as:
🤔 Am I basing my decision on objective evidence or wishful thinking?
🤔 Am I overconfident in the likelihood of a positive outcome?
🤔 Have I thoroughly evaluated the potential risks and negative consequences?
🤔 Am I underestimating the potential challenges and obstacles?
🤔 Have I actively sought out information that might challenge my optimistic beliefs?
If you become aware that the optimism bias is influencing your decision, counteract the bias.
⚒️ Counteract optimism bias
Here are some techniques you can use to reduce the influence of the optimism bias. A dose of realism about the risks and challenges involved can make success more likely.
👉 Use data and evidence. Base your decision on data, evidence, and objective information rather than relying solely on intuition or wishful thinking. Ensure that your optimism is grounded in reality.
👉Look for contradictory evidence. Actively look for objective evidence that challenges your optimistic beliefs and assumptions, and weigh both sides objectively against each other.
👉 Anticipate potential problems. Identify in advance the main obstacles, pitfalls and setbacks that may arise. View the decision and its consequences through the eyes of an objective third party.
👉Take an outside view. Actively seek advice from objective experts or knowledgeable friends to gather diverse perspectives.
👉 Conduct a premortem. Before finalising a decision, imagine that you are one year into the future. What you wanted to achieve has failed miserably. Write a brief history of the failure describing what went wrong and why. This technique can help you identify potential pitfalls and risks that you may have overlooked.
👉 For specific techniques to reduce the adverse impact of the planning fallacy see
https://www.a3lifedesign.com/blog-english/why-projects-always-take-longer-than-you-think
🎉👏🎈
Optimism gives us hope that good things will happen in the future, but unrealistic optimism can have drawbacks, such as ignoring real threats and risks. A balanced approach that combines optimism with a realistic assessment of situations is often the best strategy.
References
Thinking, Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman
The Optimism Bias: Imagining A Positive Future, Farnam Street, https://fs.blog/the-optimism-bias/
The Optimism Bias, Psychology Today, by Mark Matousek,
https://www.psychologytoday.com/intl/blog/the-seekers-forum/202203/the-optimism-bias
Is Optimism Ever Unhealthy?, Psychology Today, by David B. Feldman Ph.D.,
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/supersurvivors/201902/is-optimism-ever-unhealthy
What Is Optimism?, Psychology Today,
https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/basics/optimism
My blogposts about biases and heuristics are available here:
https://www.a3lifedesign.com/blog-english/category/Biases
